METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2010
Lightweight
VS
56%
Guillard
44%
Lowe
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:28
★ Official Result
Melvin GuillardwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:28
def. Waylon Lowe · UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guillard
→
Actual result
Guillard wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guillard at 56% vs Lowe at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Guillard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Lowe connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lowe has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuillardLowe
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guillard
Lowe
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guillard
Lowe
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.7
49.7
Performance Avg
35.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
73
Momentum Score
61
Guillard
Lowe
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
5Clinch1
5Ground0
Guillard
Lowe
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Lowe
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
6
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Guillard
Lowe
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
61
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Guillard
Lowe
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guillard
Lowe
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
GuillardLowe
Strike Zones
Guillard
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedLowe
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (79% of attacks) — Lowe absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Lowe targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guillard
RND
Lowe
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guillard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Lowe · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R3
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L · KO · R1
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UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05