UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
78%
Jones
22%
Bader
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
Jones is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jones
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
84"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
20.1
74.6
Performance Avg
54.2
61
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
100
Jones
Bader
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
58%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
1
Body
0
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jones
Bader
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
10
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Jones
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Jones
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
40%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Bader
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
JonesBader
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBader
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (60% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Bader · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01