UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Featherweight
VS
42%
Burgos
58%
Barboza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:16
SB
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15 – 3
5'11"75" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Edson
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24 – 14
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barboza

This is a genuine toss-up — Burgos at 42% vs Barboza at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Burgos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Burgos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barboza has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Burgos
Barboza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burgos
Barboza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
44.9
50.0
Performance Avg
46.3
35
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
60
Burgos
Barboza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.3
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
0
Body
1
5
Leg
8
RangeRange
7Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Burgos
Barboza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burgos
Barboza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
32/38 fights
Burgos
Barboza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Burgos
Barboza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
9
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Burgos
Barboza
Striking4.0 / 6.1Volume6.5 / 5.1Grappling2.5 / 1.2Wrestling1.8 / 0.8Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Burgos
Strike Zones
Barboza
Burgos
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY8LEGS18 absorbed
Barboza
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY8LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Burgos targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Barboza targets the head (50% of attacks) — Burgos absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Burgos
RND
Barboza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Burgos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L5.0W5.0W5.6W5.6L4.5L5.7W5.3W2016-122018-012019-112021-112022-07
WinLossTrend

Barboza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.6L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W6.2W5.5L5.5L6.4W3.1L5.5L6.2L4.6W5.5W3.7L6.5L6.2W5.3W7.0L6.5L2.7L2010-112014-042017-032021-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Burgos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · KO · R3
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

Barboza · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

News & Media

Shane Burgos · Edson Barboza
← Back to fights