UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Dublin, Ireland
24 Oct 2015
Lightweight
VS
57%
Ray
43%
Lebout
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SR
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
23 – 9
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 15
ML
Mickael Lebout
"Ragnar"
16 – 7
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ray

This is a genuine toss-up — Ray at 57% vs Lebout at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ray has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ray's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ray
Lebout
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ray
Lebout
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
11.8
46.0
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
46
Momentum Score
40
Ray
Lebout
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.9
48%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
9
2
Body
0
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ray
Lebout
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ray
Lebout
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/32 fights
Chin rating based on
3/23 fights
Ray
Lebout
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
40
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ray
Lebout
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ray
Lebout
Striking4.1 / 0.7Volume7.0 / 8.7Grappling1.7 / 2.4Wrestling1.2 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Ray
Strike Zones
Lebout
Ray
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY5LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Lebout
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY5LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ray targets the head (42% of attacks) — Lebout absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Lebout targets the head (90% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ray
RND
Lebout
0/0R00/0

Ray · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.6L4.6W2015-042016-092017-072019-062019-10
WinLossTrend

Lebout · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L4.5W5.5L2015-042015-072015-10
WinLossTrend

Ray · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Leonardo SantosRating 1.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Jessin AyariRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Paul FelderRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

Lebout · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Teemu PackalenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

News & Media

Stevie Ray · Mickael Lebout
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