UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
34%
Reed
66%
Gomes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gomes
Gomes holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Reed has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gomes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Gomes throws more volume but Reed connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reed's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reed
Gomes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"+
Height
5'2"
63"
Reach
63"
33
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reed
Gomes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.3
60.0
32.8
Performance Avg
54.5
25
Quality of Victory
41
45
Momentum Score
74
Reed
Gomes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
53%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
10
2
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch1
0Ground8
Reed
Gomes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reed
Gomes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Reed
Gomes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
74
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Reed
Gomes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reed
Gomes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
ReedGomes
Strike Zones
Reed
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedGomes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reed targets the body (100% of attacks) — Gomes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gomes targets the head (77% of attacks) — Reed absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reed
RND
Gomes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Reed · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Gomes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Reed · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Denise GomesRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jessica PenneRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Jinh Yu FreyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R2
Loma LookboonmeeRating 3.7Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Gomes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Elise ReedRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11