Thiago Santos vs Eric Spicely — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Brasilia, Brazil

24 Sept 2016

Middleweight

65%

Santos

35%

Spicely

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 2:58

Thiago Santos

"Marreta"

22 – 11

6'2"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist

CFR 32

Eric Spicely

"Zebrinha"

12 – 6

Submission Hunter4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"

CFR 17

★ Official Result

Eric SpicelywinsSubmissionR1 · 2:58

def. Thiago Santos · UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Santos

→

Actual result

Spicely wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Santos holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Spicely has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spicely has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

SantosSpicely

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Santos

Spicely

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"+

Height

6'1"

76"+

Reach

73"

Age

+39

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Santos

Spicely

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

32.2

17.3

54.0

Performance Avg

43.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Santos

Spicely

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.0

/ 10

0.6

/ 10

7.3

Style: Pressure

7.9

2.9

Style: Volume

0.6

11 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance1

0Clinch2

1Ground2

Santos

Spicely

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.5

/ 10

8.0

/ 10

0.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

5.6

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

10.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Santos

Spicely

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

24/33 fights

Chin rating based on

7/18 fights

Santos

Spicely

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

L · KO · R4

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

L · Sub · R2

W · Sub · R1

Santos

Spicely

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

79%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos

Spicely

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.6

0.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

8.0

0.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

5.6

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

10.0

7.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.9

2.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.6

Santos

Strike Zones

Spicely

Santos

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Spicely

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Santos targets the head (50% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 50% of strikes there

🎯Spicely targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos

RND

Spicely

0/0R00/0

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R4

Jamahal Hill

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08

L · Dec · R5

Magomed Ankalaev

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

W · Dec · R5

Johnny Walker

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10

L · Dec · R3

Aleksandar Rakic

Decision

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03

L · Sub · R3

Glover Teixeira

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11

Spicely · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Deron Winn

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06

L · KO · R2

Darren Stewart

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05

L · KO · R2

Gerald Meerschaert

KO/TKO

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

L · Sub · R2

Antonio Carlos Junior

Submission

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06

W · Sub · R1

Alessio Di Chirico

Submission

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01

News & Media

Thiago Santos · Eric Spicely

← Back to fights