UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Lightweight
VS
58%
Miller
42%
Gurgel
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:48
CM
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21 – 11
6'1"73" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
JG
Jorge Gurgel
14 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide49 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 58% vs Gurgel at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Miller has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller
Gurgel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
69"
42+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Gurgel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.6
12.5
49.0
Performance Avg
32.1
47
Quality of Victory
25
49
Momentum Score
45
Miller
Gurgel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
31%
Strike Accuracy
28%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
11
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
2Clinch5
0Ground1
Miller
Gurgel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Gurgel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Miller
Gurgel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Miller
Gurgel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Gurgel
Striking2.0 / 0.9Volume2.6 / 8.9Grappling6.1 / 2.4Wrestling4.3 / 1.7Submission7.0 / 0.0Pressure7.2 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Miller
Strike Zones
Gurgel
Miller
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Gurgel
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (71% of attacks) — Gurgel absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Gurgel targets the head (92% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Gurgel
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.5W3.2L5.5W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W6.6L5.7L5.5L2007-062009-092012-032014-012016-12
WinLossTrend

Gurgel · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L5.5L2006-062007-072008-032008-11
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Upcoming
Jim Alers
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01

Gurgel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R3
Cole MillerRating 4
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
John HalversonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Alvin RobinsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Diego SaraivaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07

News & Media

Cole Miller · Jorge Gurgel
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