UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Katona
47%
Armfield
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brad
Brad Katona
"Superman"
16 – 5
5'6"64" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 42
Garrett
Garrett Armfield
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide29 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'6"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Katona

This is a genuine toss-up — Katona at 53% vs Armfield at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Armfield has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Katona
Armfield
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
64"
Reach
+70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Katona
Armfield
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.2
37.9
44.0
Performance Avg
41.5
44
Quality of Victory
43
40
Momentum Score
28
Katona
Armfield
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
30
3
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance27
6Clinch6
1Ground0
Katona
Armfield
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Katona
Armfield
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
74
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Katona
Armfield
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Katona
Armfield
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Katona
Armfield
Striking0.9 / 5.8Volume8.9 / 4.8Grappling2.4 / 1.2Wrestling1.7 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.3 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Katona
Strike Zones
Armfield
Katona
Attacking
15HEAD3BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD3BODY0LEGS33 absorbed
Armfield
Attacking
30HEAD3BODY0LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD3BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Katona targets the head (79% of attacks) — Armfield absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Armfield targets the head (91% of attacks) — Katona absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Katona
RND
Armfield
0/0R00/0

Katona · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L4.7W5.6L4.5W6.4L2.6L2018-072019-092024-062025-05
WinLossTrend

Armfield · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0103.6L5.3W4.9W5.1L6.1L2022-072023-082024-012024-062024-11
WinLossTrend

Katona · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ButlerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Garrett ArmfieldRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Cody GibsonRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Armfield · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Serhiy SideyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Brady HiestandRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · KO · R1
Toshiomi KazamaRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
L · Sub · R2
David OnamaRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07

News & Media

Brad Katona · Garrett Armfield
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