UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
41%
Barberena
59%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
This is a genuine toss-up — Barberena at 41% vs Covington at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barberena's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barberena
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Barberena
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
61.2
43.9
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
42
76
Momentum Score
100
Barberena
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
0.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
38%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
20
2
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance21
2Clinch2
2Ground2
Barberena
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barberena
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Barberena
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Barberena
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
42%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barberena
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
BarberenaCovington
Strike Zones
Barberena
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedCovington
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barberena targets the head (74% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (80% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barberena
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09