METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
44%
Barberena
56%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Bryan
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18 – 12
6'0"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 43
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 55
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Bryan Barberena · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Barberena at 44% vs Covington at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Barberena's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BarberenaCovington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barberena
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Barberena
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
55.0
43.9
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
42
76
Momentum Score
100
Barberena
Covington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
5.0
4.5
Style: Volume
6.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
20
2
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance21
2Clinch2
2Ground2
Barberena
Covington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barberena
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Barberena
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Barberena
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
42%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barberena
Covington
Striking5.4 / 3.9Volume4.5 / 6.1Grappling2.0 / 2.7Wrestling1.4 / 1.9Submission1.1 / 1.7Pressure5.3 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Barberena
Strike Zones
Covington
Barberena
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY3LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD5BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Covington
Attacking
20HEAD5BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY3LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barberena targets the head (74% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (80% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barberena
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0

Barberena · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Gerald Meerschaert
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud Muradov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar Nelson
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos Anjos
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie Lawler
KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon Edwards
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge Masvidal
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru Usman
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron Woodley
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Bryan Barberena · Colby Covington
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