UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Sydney, Australia
31 Jan 2026
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Tuivasa
58%
Teixeira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Teixeira
This is a genuine toss-up — Tuivasa at 42% vs Teixeira at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tuivasa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Tuivasa throws more volume but Teixeira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tuivasa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'7"
75"
Reach
+83"
33
Age
+26
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.2
59.8
50.4
Performance Avg
52.2
54
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
85
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
65%
9.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
5
7
Body
6
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance9
9Clinch2
3Ground0
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
85
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tuivasa
Teixeira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
TuivasaTeixeira
Strike Zones
Tuivasa
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTeixeira
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tuivasa targets the head (63% of attacks) — Teixeira absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Teixeira targets the body (55% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tuivasa
RND
Teixeira
0/0R00/0
Tuivasa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Teixeira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Tuivasa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Teixeira · Last 4
Upcoming
Sergei PavlovichUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02