METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Bantamweight
VS
83%
Sterling
17%
Mendes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aljamain SterlingwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Augusto Mendes · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sterling
→
Actual result
Sterling wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sterling is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sterling has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SterlingMendes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sterling
Mendes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
65"
37+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Mendes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
11.3
54.2
Performance Avg
28.3
38
Quality of Victory
25
71
Momentum Score
40
Sterling
Mendes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
1.0
6.5
Style: Volume
8.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
8
16
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance9
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Sterling
Mendes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Mendes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Sterling
Mendes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
40
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Sterling
Mendes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Mendes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SterlingMendes
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMendes
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (51% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Mendes targets the head (89% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Mendes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevDecision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Mendes · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02