UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Bantamweight
VS
83%
Sterling
17%
Mendes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sterling has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Sterling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling
Mendes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
65"
36+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Mendes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
11.3
54.2
Performance Avg
28.3
38
Quality of Victory
25
71
Momentum Score
40
Sterling
Mendes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
29%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
8
16
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
32Distance9
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Sterling
Mendes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sterling
Mendes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Sterling
Mendes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
40
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Sterling
Mendes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Mendes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SterlingMendes
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMendes
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (51% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Mendes targets the head (89% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Mendes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Mendes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Mendes · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02