UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Lightweight
VS
19%
Martins
81%
Makhachev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:46
AM
Adriano Martins
28 – 9
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
Well-Rounded16-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 75

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

Makhachev is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 57 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Martins throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Martins's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Martins
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Martins
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.1
74.5
52.0
Performance Avg
69.8
49
Quality of Victory
53
30
Momentum Score
100
Martins
Makhachev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
60%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Martins
Makhachev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
4.7
1
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Martins
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
16 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/37 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Martins
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
16-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Martins
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
65%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
8
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Martins
Makhachev
Striking6.1 / 3.6Volume3.1 / 4.7Grappling2.6 / 4.6Wrestling1.8 / 3.2Submission2.5 / 4.7Pressure7.0 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Martins
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Martins
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Makhachev
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Martins targets the head (67% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Martins absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Martins
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Martins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W1.5L5.0W4.5W7.0W5.6L4.0L2013-112014-072015-102017-09
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Martins · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Leonardo SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Juan Manuel PuigRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

News & Media

Adriano Martins · Islam Makhachev
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