UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Welterweight
VS
74%
Gall
26%
Sullivan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gall
Gall is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Gall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gall's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sullivan has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gall
Sullivan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
73"
34+
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Gall
Sullivan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
16.1
47.5
Performance Avg
38.1
48
Quality of Victory
35
56
Momentum Score
79
Gall
Sullivan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gall
Sullivan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
7.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
5.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gall
Sullivan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Gall
Sullivan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
79
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Gall
Sullivan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gall
Sullivan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
7.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
5.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
8.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gall
RND
Sullivan
0/0R00/0
Gall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Sullivan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Gall · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ramiz BrahimajRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Bassil HafezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Mike MalottRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Jordan WilliamsRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
Sullivan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander YakovlevRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04