UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2011
Lightweight
VS
47%
Njokuani
53%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Castillo
This is a genuine toss-up — Njokuani at 47% vs Castillo at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Njokuani has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Njokuani
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Njokuani
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.0
17.2
36.0
Performance Avg
40.6
35
Quality of Victory
34
50
Momentum Score
89
Njokuani
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
48%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
4
4
Body
2
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance3
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Njokuani
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Njokuani
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/28 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Njokuani
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Njokuani
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Njokuani
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
NjokuaniCastillo
Strike Zones
Njokuani
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Njokuani targets the legs (41% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (44% of attacks) — Njokuani absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Njokuani
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Njokuani · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Castillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Njokuani · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daron CruickshankRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 5.7Decision
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · KO · R2
Roger BowlingRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04