UFC 40: Vendetta
Las Vegas, USA
22 Nov 2002
Welterweight
VS
97%
Lawler
3%
Ghosn
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:29
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ghosn has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
Ghosn
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
44+
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
Ghosn
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
1.2
51.0
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
90
Momentum Score
0
Lawler
Ghosn
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
32%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
4Distance7
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Lawler
Ghosn
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Ghosn
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Lawler
Ghosn
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Lawler
Ghosn
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
Ghosn
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LawlerGhosn
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedGhosn
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ghosn absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ghosn targets the legs (86% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
Ghosn
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Ghosn · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.5WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Ghosn · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Chris LytleRating 2.8Submission
UFC 47: It's On! · 2004-04
L · KO · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC 40: Vendetta · 2002-11
L · Sub · R2
Sean SherkRating 2.8Submission
UFC 30: Battle on the Boardwalk · 2001-02
L · Sub · R2
Bob CookRating 2.8Submission
UFC 24: First Defense · 2000-03