★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 33 Flyweight Tournament
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Ultimate Fighter 33 Flyweight Tournament
VS
8%
Idiris
92%
Morales
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:04
Alibi
Alibi Idiris
11 – 1
5'6"68" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 7
Joseph
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
15 – 2
Submission Hunter2-fight win streak31 yrsSwitch69" reach5'6"
CFR 76

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Morales

Morales is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 69 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 69 points.

Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Idiris
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+69"
31
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Idiris
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.0
75.6
0.0
Performance Avg
65.6
0
Quality of Victory
69
0
Momentum Score
98
Idiris
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
7
Body
10
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance14
1Clinch3
0Ground2
Idiris
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Idiris
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/12 fights
Chin rating based on
5/17 fights
Idiris
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
98
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Idiris
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Idiris
Morales
Striking0.0 / 1.2Volume0.0 / 1.2Grappling0.0 / 8.0Wrestling0.0 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure0.0 / 8.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Idiris
Strike Zones
Morales
Idiris
Attacking
3HEAD7BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD10BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
8HEAD10BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD7BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Idiris targets the body (70% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the body (53% of attacks) — Idiris absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Idiris
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W3.8L5.5L5.2W5.2W2017-082018-022018-112025-082025-11
WinLossTrend

Idiris · Last 2

Upcoming
Ode Osbourne
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Joseph MoralesRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

Morales · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Alibi IdirisRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Eric SheltonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Robert SanchezRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08

News & Media

Alibi Idiris · Joseph Morales
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