UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Las Vegas, USA
12 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
45%
Pearce
55%
Sabatini
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sabatini
This is a genuine toss-up — Pearce at 45% vs Sabatini at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pearce has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pearce's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sabatini has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pearce
Sabatini
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
34+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Pearce
Sabatini
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.8
55.7
47.4
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
34
56
Momentum Score
81
Pearce
Sabatini
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Pearce
Sabatini
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pearce
Sabatini
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Pearce
Sabatini
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Pearce
Sabatini
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pearce
Sabatini
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
PearceSabatini
Strike Zones
Pearce
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSabatini
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pearce targets the body (50% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Sabatini targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pearce absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pearce
RND
Sabatini
0/0R00/0
Pearce · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pearce · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Pat SabatiniRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
David OnamaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Joanderson BritoRating 4.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11