UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Welterweight
VS
44%
Thompson
56%
Buckley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Buckley
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 44% vs Buckley at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thompson
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"
Reach
+76"
43
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Thompson
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
58.0
48.9
Performance Avg
50.6
43
Quality of Victory
41
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
3
Body
4
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground1
Thompson
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thompson
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Thompson
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Thompson
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
55%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Buckley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
ThompsonBuckley
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedBuckley
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (63% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Buckley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Buckley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05