METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Welterweight
VS
44%
Thompson
56%
Buckley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:17
★ Official Result
Joaquin BuckleywinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:17
def. Stephen Thompson · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Buckley
→
Actual result
Buckley wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 44% vs Buckley at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThompsonBuckley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thompson
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"
Reach
+76"
43
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Thompson
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
58.0
48.9
Performance Avg
50.6
43
Quality of Victory
41
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Buckley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
6.8
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
5.8
5.1
Style: Volume
3.5
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
3
Body
4
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground1
Thompson
Buckley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Thompson
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
Thompson
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
55%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Buckley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
ThompsonBuckley
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedBuckley
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (63% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Buckley · Last 5
Upcoming
Mike MalottUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyDecision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10