UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Middleweight
VS
46%
Holland
54%
Ridder
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:31
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
6'3"81" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Reinier
Reinier de Ridder
"RdR"
21 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'4"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ridder

This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 46% vs Ridder at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Holland throws more volume but Ridder connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holland
Ridder
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
81"+
Reach
78"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Ridder
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
55.7
49.3
Performance Avg
53.5
44
Quality of Victory
45
51
Momentum Score
53
Holland
Ridder
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
11
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch0
9Ground12
Holland
Ridder
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
6
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holland
Ridder
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Holland
Ridder
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
53
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Holland
Ridder
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
75%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holland
Ridder
Striking4.3 / 3.8Volume3.6 / 3.3Grappling3.8 / 4.6Wrestling2.6 / 3.2Submission3.8 / 5.0Pressure6.5 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Holland
Strike Zones
Ridder
Holland
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Ridder
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ridder absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Ridder targets the head (92% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holland
RND
Ridder
0/0R00/0

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Ridder · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0106.6W5.6W6.9W5.4W4.7L6.9L2024-112025-012025-052025-072025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

Ridder · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · KO · R4
Brendan AllenRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Bo NickalRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

News & Media

Kevin Holland · Reinier de Ridder
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