UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Ortiz
41%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:15
TO
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
19 – 12
6'3"74" reachOrthodox51 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
Striker2-fight slide49 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortiz

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortiz at 59% vs Nogueira at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Ortiz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ortiz's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortiz
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
51
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ortiz
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
14.4
57.3
Performance Avg
47.0
57
Quality of Victory
48
85
Momentum Score
20
Ortiz
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
26
2
Body
28
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
5Clinch15
0Ground37
Ortiz
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortiz
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/31 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Ortiz
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
20
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Ortiz
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
67%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortiz
Nogueira
Striking5.8 / 7.6Volume3.8 / 3.6Grappling1.9 / 0.8Wrestling1.3 / 0.6Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Ortiz
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Ortiz
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD28BODY0LEGS54 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
26HEAD28BODY0LEGS54 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the head (78% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the body (52% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortiz
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L4.2W5.0W3.4L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L5.5L5.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L1.5L5.5L1997-052001-022005-022010-102012-07
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Forrest GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Rogerio NogueiraRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · KO · R2
Rashad EvansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
W · Sub · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5
Submission
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Tito Ortiz · Rogerio Nogueira
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