UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Hamburg, Germany
3 Sept 2016
Welterweight
VS
27%
Sobotta
73%
Dalby
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PS
Peter Sobotta
17 – 7
6'0"75" reachSouthpaw39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
Nicolas
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
24 – 6
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dalby

Dalby is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sobotta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Dalby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sobotta's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sobotta
Dalby
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
39+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sobotta
Dalby
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.1
41.4
39.8
Performance Avg
41.9
40
Quality of Victory
29
50
Momentum Score
45
Sobotta
Dalby
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
48%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
2
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance6
0Clinch3
0Ground2
Sobotta
Dalby
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sobotta
Dalby
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/30 fights
Sobotta
Dalby
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Sobotta
Dalby
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
13%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sobotta
Dalby
Striking3.3 / 2.5Volume4.8 / 8.2Grappling3.2 / 2.1Wrestling2.2 / 1.5Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 2.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.2
Sobotta
Strike Zones
Dalby
Sobotta
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Dalby
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sobotta targets the head (82% of attacks) — Dalby absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Dalby targets the head (55% of attacks) — Sobotta absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sobotta
RND
Dalby
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sobotta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.8W5.2W5.1L5.5L2009-062014-052016-092020-07
WinLossTrend

Dalby · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.9L5.5L4.5W5.4W5.6L4.5W4.7W5.5W7.0W7.1L3.6L4.5W2015-052020-112023-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Sobotta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11

Dalby · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Saygid IzagakhmaevRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Randy BrownRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Peter Sobotta · Nicolas Dalby
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