UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Anaheim, USA
23 Feb 2013
Lightweight
VS
82%
Chiesa
18%
Kuivanen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:29
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
AK
Anton Kuivanen
24 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

Chiesa is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Chiesa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Kuivanen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chiesa
Kuivanen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
11.5
53.3
Performance Avg
28.3
43
Quality of Victory
25
50
Momentum Score
40
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
9
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/34 fights
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
40
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Kuivanen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
9
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Kuivanen
Striking1.4 / 0.7Volume4.6 / 8.7Grappling5.8 / 2.4Wrestling4.0 / 1.7Submission6.0 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Kuivanen
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Kuivanen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L4.5W3.5L2012-022012-072013-02
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Kuivanen · Last 3

L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Mitch ClarkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Anton Kuivanen
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