UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Atlantic City, USA
22 Jun 2012
Welterweight
VS
51%
Ebersole
49%
Waldburger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BE
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
51 – 18
6'0"73" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
TW
TJ Waldburger
16 – 9
Submission Hunter2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ebersole

This is a genuine toss-up — Ebersole at 51% vs Waldburger at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Waldburger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Striking split: Ebersole throws more volume but Waldburger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Waldburger has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ebersole
Waldburger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
+75"
45
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ebersole
Waldburger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
16.9
44.2
Performance Avg
47.4
32
Quality of Victory
46
75
Momentum Score
50
Ebersole
Waldburger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
2
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Ebersole
Waldburger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.6
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ebersole
Waldburger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
32
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/69 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Ebersole
Waldburger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Ebersole
Waldburger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ebersole
Waldburger
Striking3.3 / 1.0Volume7.7 / 3.0Grappling1.9 / 6.6Wrestling1.3 / 4.6Submission0.0 / 7.5Pressure3.3 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Ebersole
Strike Zones
Waldburger
Ebersole
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Waldburger
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ebersole targets the head (60% of attacks) — Waldburger absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Waldburger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ebersole
RND
Waldburger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ebersole · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2011-022011-122012-072014-092015-06
WinLossTrend

Waldburger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W1.5L4.0L2010-092011-092012-062013-102014-02
WinLossTrend

Ebersole · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06

Waldburger · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R1
Adlan AmagovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jake HechtRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03

News & Media

Brian Ebersole · TJ Waldburger
← Back to fights