METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Atlantic City, USA
22 Jun 2012
Welterweight
VS
51%
Ebersole
49%
Waldburger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Brian EbersolewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. TJ Waldburger · UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ebersole
→
Actual result
Ebersole wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ebersole at 51% vs Waldburger at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Waldburger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Waldburger has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EbersoleWaldburger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ebersole
Waldburger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
+75"
45
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ebersole
Waldburger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
16.9
44.2
Performance Avg
47.4
32
Quality of Victory
46
75
Momentum Score
50
Ebersole
Waldburger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
6.8
7.7
Style: Volume
3.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
2
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Ebersole
Waldburger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
6.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
7.5
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ebersole
Waldburger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
32
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/69 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Ebersole
Waldburger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Ebersole
Waldburger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ebersole
Waldburger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
EbersoleWaldburger
Strike Zones
Ebersole
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedWaldburger
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ebersole targets the head (60% of attacks) — Waldburger absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Waldburger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ebersole absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ebersole
RND
Waldburger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ebersole · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Omari AkhmedovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
John HowardDecision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryDecision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · Dec · R3
James HeadDecision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
TJ WaldburgerDecision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
Waldburger · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleKO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R1
Adlan AmagovKO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleDecision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jake HechtSubmission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03