UFC 41: Onslaught
Atlantic City, USA
28 Feb 2003
Lightweight
VS
51%
Thomas
49%
Serra
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DT
Din Thomas
"Dinyero"
26 – 9
5'9"Orthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thomas

This is a genuine toss-up — Thomas at 51% vs Serra at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Serra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Thomas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thomas's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thomas
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
Reach
68"
49+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thomas
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
18.2
43.1
Performance Avg
53.3
35
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
52
Thomas
Serra
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.7
39%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
3
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance3
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Thomas
Serra
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thomas
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/35 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Thomas
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Thomas
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
43%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thomas
Serra
Striking1.1 / 3.9Volume5.9 / 5.6Grappling4.6 / 2.5Wrestling3.3 / 1.8Submission4.0 / 1.4Pressure4.5 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Thomas
Strike Zones
Serra
Thomas
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Serra
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thomas targets the head (55% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the head (40% of attacks) — Thomas absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thomas
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0

Thomas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W5.8W1.5L5.5L2001-062003-022007-052008-04
WinLossTrend

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

Thomas · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh NeerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
L · Sub · R1
Kenny FlorianRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
W · Sub · R2
Jeremy StephensRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson · 2007-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01
W · Sub · R2
Rich ClementiRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

News & Media

Din Thomas · Matt Serra
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