METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 101: Declaration
Philadelphia, USA
8 Aug 2009
Lightweight
VS
40%
Riley
60%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron RileywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Shane Nelson · UFC 101: Declaration
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Riley wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Riley has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RileyNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Riley
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
17.2
28.3
Performance Avg
45.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
45
Momentum Score
44
Riley
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
5.0
8.7
Style: Volume
5.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
1
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch1
8Ground0
Riley
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Riley
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
44
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riley
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
RileyNelson
Strike Zones
Riley
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedNelson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the body (67% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riley
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Nelson · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanDecision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R3
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