UFC 101: Declaration
Philadelphia, USA
8 Aug 2009
Lightweight
VS
40%
Riley
60%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Aaron Riley
30 – 14
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
SN
Shane Nelson
"Sugar"
16 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Riley has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Riley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Riley
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
17.2
28.3
Performance Avg
45.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
45
Momentum Score
44
Riley
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
26%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
1
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch1
8Ground0
Riley
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Riley
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
44
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
Nelson
Striking0.7 / 6.0Volume8.7 / 5.0Grappling2.4 / 1.2Wrestling1.7 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Riley
Strike Zones
Nelson
Riley
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the body (67% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riley
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.8L4.0L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.8L4.5W4.5L5.5L2002-052009-032010-052013-07
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L2008-122009-032009-082009-12
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08

Nelson · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · KO · R1
Aaron RileyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12

News & Media

Aaron Riley · Shane Nelson
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