METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 101: Declaration
Philadelphia, USA
8 Aug 2009
Lightweight
VS
40%
Riley
60%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron RileywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Shane Nelson · UFC 101: Declaration
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Riley wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Riley has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Riley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RileyNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Riley
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
45
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Riley
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
17.2
28.3
Performance Avg
45.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
45
Momentum Score
44
Riley
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
0.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
26%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
1
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch1
8Ground0
Riley
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Riley
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
44
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riley
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
RileyNelson
Strike Zones
Riley
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedNelson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the body (67% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riley
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Riley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Nelson · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · KO · R1
Aaron RileyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12