METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Featherweight
VS
75%
Sabatini
25%
Connelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Pat SabatiniwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tristan Connelly · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sabatini
→
Actual result
Sabatini wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sabatini is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SabatiniConnelly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sabatini
Connelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"+
Reach
68"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sabatini
Connelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
18.6
53.2
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
40
Sabatini
Connelly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
1.0
7.0
Style: Volume
8.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
4
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance8
4Clinch4
0Ground0
Sabatini
Connelly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sabatini
Connelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Sabatini
Connelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
40
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sabatini
Connelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sabatini
Connelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SabatiniConnelly
Strike Zones
Sabatini
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedConnelly
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sabatini targets the body (57% of attacks) — Connelly absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Connelly targets the body (50% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sabatini
RND
Connelly
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
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W · Dec · R3
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