UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Featherweight
VS
75%
Sabatini
25%
Connelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Pat
Pat Sabatini
22 – 5
5'8"70" reachOrthodox35 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 56
TC
Tristan Connelly
"Boondock"
14 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sabatini

Sabatini is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Connelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sabatini
Connelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"+
Reach
68"
35+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sabatini
Connelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
18.6
53.2
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
40
Sabatini
Connelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
57%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
4
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance8
4Clinch4
0Ground0
Sabatini
Connelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sabatini
Connelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/22 fights
Sabatini
Connelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
40
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sabatini
Connelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sabatini
Connelly
Striking1.6 / 0.7Volume7.0 / 8.7Grappling4.3 / 2.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Sabatini
Strike Zones
Connelly
Sabatini
Attacking
3HEAD4BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD6BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Connelly
Attacking
5HEAD6BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD4BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sabatini targets the body (57% of attacks) — Connelly absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Connelly targets the body (50% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sabatini
RND
Connelly
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sabatini · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W1.8L5.3W2.8L5.5W6.1W5.6W5.5W2021-042022-042023-112025-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Connelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.1W6.5L6.0L2019-092021-042022-04
WinLossTrend

Sabatini · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Connelly · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

News & Media

Pat Sabatini · Tristan Connelly
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