Alex Caceres vs Sergio Pettis — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson

Chicago, USA

25 Jan 2014

Bantamweight

74%

Caceres

26%

Pettis

Win Probability

Submission

Round 3 · 4:39

Alex Caceres

"Bruce Leeroy"

21 – 15

5'10"73" reachSouthpaw38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 40

Sergio Pettis

18 – 5

Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"

CFR 14

★ Official Result

Alex CacereswinsSubmissionR3 · 4:39

def. Sergio Pettis · UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Caceres

→

Actual result

Caceres wins

Submission · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Caceres is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CaceresPettis

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Caceres

Pettis

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'6"

73"+

Reach

69"

Age

+33

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Caceres

Pettis

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

39.7

14.2

42.2

Performance Avg

40.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Caceres

Pettis

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.7

/ 10

1.3

/ 10

3.8

Style: Pressure

1.9

6.1

Style: Volume

9.3

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

22Distance15

1Clinch2

2Ground0

Caceres

Pettis

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.5

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

2.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Caceres

Pettis

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

18 fights ago

Last KO loss

9 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

30/36 fights

Chin rating based on

14/23 fights

Caceres

Pettis

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Caceres

Pettis

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

31%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caceres

Pettis

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.3

3.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

2.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

3.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

1.9

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

9.3

Caceres

Strike Zones

Pettis

Caceres

Attacking

25 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Pettis

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

25 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Caceres targets the head (68% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 68% of strikes there

🎯Pettis targets the head (82% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caceres

RND

Pettis

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Caceres · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Sean Woodson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

L · Dec · R3

Giga Chikadze

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08

W · Dec · R3

Daniel Pineda

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

W · KO · R1

Julian Erosa

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

L · Dec · R3

Sodiq Yusuff

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Tyson Nam

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09

L · Dec · R3

Rob Font

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12

L · Dec · R3

Jussier Formiga

Decision

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

W · Dec · R3

Joseph Benavidez

Decision

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06

L · Dec · R3

Henry Cejudo

Decision

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Alex Caceres · Sergio Pettis

← Back to fights