UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Chicago, USA
25 Jan 2014
Bantamweight
VS
74%
Caceres
26%
Pettis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:39
Alex
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21 – 15
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
SP
Sergio Pettis
18 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caceres

Caceres is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Caceres
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
14.2
42.2
Performance Avg
40.7
34
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
55
Caceres
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
14
6
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance15
1Clinch2
2Ground0
Caceres
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Caceres
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Caceres
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caceres
Pettis
Striking1.7 / 1.3Volume6.1 / 9.3Grappling3.5 / 2.4Wrestling2.5 / 1.7Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 1.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Caceres
Strike Zones
Pettis
Caceres
Attacking
17HEAD6BODY2LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD6BODY2LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (68% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (82% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caceres
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Caceres · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W7.1L2.8L4.2W5.5L4.5W2.3L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.5W5.4W6.3L5.2W5.4W6.5L6.6L2011-032014-072017-112022-032024-05
WinLossTrend

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.4W7.0L4.5W5.5L6.7L4.7W2013-112015-032017-082018-122019-09
WinLossTrend

Caceres · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Alex Caceres · Sergio Pettis
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