METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Chicago, USA
25 Jan 2014
Bantamweight
VS
74%
Caceres
26%
Pettis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:39
★ Official Result
Alex CacereswinsSubmissionR3 · 4:39
def. Sergio Pettis · UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Caceres
→
Actual result
Caceres wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Caceres is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaceresPettis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Caceres
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
69"
38
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
14.2
42.2
Performance Avg
40.7
34
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
55
Caceres
Pettis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
14
6
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance15
1Clinch2
2Ground0
Caceres
Pettis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Caceres
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Caceres
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
CaceresPettis
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedPettis
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (68% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (82% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12