The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2018
Women's Featherweight
VS
67%
Stoliarenko
33%
Letson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stoliarenko
Stoliarenko holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Letson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Stoliarenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Striking split: Stoliarenko throws more volume but Letson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Stoliarenko's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stoliarenko
Letson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
66"
Reach
+71"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stoliarenko
Letson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
20.4
41.3
Performance Avg
35.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
20
Momentum Score
46
Stoliarenko
Letson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.8
39%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
6
0
Body
4
7
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance15
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Stoliarenko
Letson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stoliarenko
Letson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
2/8 fights
Stoliarenko
Letson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Stoliarenko
Letson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stoliarenko
Letson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
StoliarenkoLetson
Strike Zones
Stoliarenko
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedLetson
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stoliarenko targets the head (61% of attacks) — Letson absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Letson targets the head (40% of attacks) — Stoliarenko absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stoliarenko
RND
Letson
0/0R00/0
Stoliarenko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Letson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Stoliarenko · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriella FernandesRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R3
Luana CarolinaRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Sub · R1
Molly McCannRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Chelsea ChandlerRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
Letson · Last 2
L · KO · R3
Felicia SpencerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 4.8Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11