UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Flyweight
VS
18%
Cariaso
82%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17 – 8
5'3"64" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'4"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

Cejudo is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cariaso
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
64"
Reach
64"
44
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
64.7
39.1
Performance Avg
57.5
29
Quality of Victory
54
45
Momentum Score
97
Cariaso
Cejudo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
3
Body
10
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
2Clinch2
0Ground13
Cariaso
Cejudo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Cariaso
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
97
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Cariaso
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cariaso
Cejudo
Striking2.5 / 5.3Volume7.9 / 6.0Grappling2.1 / 1.4Wrestling1.4 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Cariaso
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Cariaso
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD10BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Cejudo
Attacking
9HEAD10BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the head (43% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (53% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cariaso
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0

Cariaso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L7.0L5.5L2011-012012-072014-022015-10
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Cariaso · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

News & Media

Chris Cariaso · Henry Cejudo
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