METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Flyweight
VS
18%
Cariaso
82%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Henry CejudowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Cariaso · UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cejudo
→
Actual result
Cejudo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cejudo is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CariasoCejudo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cariaso
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
64"
Reach
64"
45
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
65.3
39.1
Performance Avg
58.4
29
Quality of Victory
56
45
Momentum Score
97
Cariaso
Cejudo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
4.7
7.9
Style: Volume
6.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
3
Body
10
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
2Clinch2
0Ground13
Cariaso
Cejudo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cariaso
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Cariaso
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
97
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Cariaso
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Cejudo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
CariasoCejudo
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCejudo
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the head (43% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (53% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05