METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Flyweight
VS
18%
Cariaso
82%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Henry CejudowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Cariaso · UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cejudo
→
Actual result
Cejudo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cejudo is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CariasoCejudo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cariaso
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
64"
Reach
64"
45
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
64.7
39.1
Performance Avg
57.5
29
Quality of Victory
54
45
Momentum Score
97
Cariaso
Cejudo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
3
Body
10
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance4
2Clinch2
0Ground13
Cariaso
Cejudo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Cariaso
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
97
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Cariaso
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Cejudo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
CariasoCejudo
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCejudo
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the head (43% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (53% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Cejudo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05