UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
16 Jan 2021
Welterweight
VS
34%
Condit
66%
Brown
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
3214
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
2619
Knockout Artist45 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

Brown holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Condit has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
42.5
47.8
Performance Avg
54.0
48
Quality of Victory
52
20
Momentum Score
78
Condit
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
60%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
13 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
1
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
5Clinch3
2Ground4
Condit
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Condit
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Condit
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
88%
4
KO / TKO Wins
13
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
Brown
Striking5.4 / 8.8Volume4.5 / 2.1Grappling1.1 / 1.2Wrestling0.8 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 1.2Pressure4.5 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Condit
Strike Zones
Brown
Condit
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Brown
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (83% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (50% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Matt Brown
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