UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Welterweight
VS
44%
Santos
56%
Strickland
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:40
CFR 45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Strickland
This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 44% vs Strickland at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Strickland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+76"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
57.7
49.3
Performance Avg
50.9
39
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
100
Santos
Strickland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
13
2
Body
0
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance13
0Clinch1
6Ground0
Santos
Strickland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/35 fights
Chin rating based on
25/38 fights
Santos
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Santos
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Strickland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
SantosStrickland
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedStrickland
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (60% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (93% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Strickland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat FakhretdinovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01