UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Featherweight
VS
50%
Aldo
50%
Stephens
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:19
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aldo

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 50% vs Stephens at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Aldo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aldo
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
45.0
53.6
Performance Avg
41.1
49
Quality of Victory
40
40
Momentum Score
76
Aldo
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
16
3
Body
2
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance16
1Clinch4
12Ground0
Aldo
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldo
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Aldo
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Aldo
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Stephens
Striking4.1 / 5.5Volume6.9 / 4.6Grappling1.7 / 1.1Wrestling1.2 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Aldo
Strike Zones
Stephens
Aldo
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY5LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY5LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (72% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (80% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Aldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Jose Aldo · Jeremy Stephens
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