UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Middleweight
VS
79%
Costa
21%
Bamgbose
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bamgbose has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bamgbose has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Costa
Bamgbose
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+78"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Costa
Bamgbose
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.3
14.8
52.9
Performance Avg
44.0
44
Quality of Victory
60
59
Momentum Score
13
Costa
Bamgbose
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
4
0
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch5
13Ground0
Costa
Bamgbose
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Bamgbose
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
32
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Costa
Bamgbose
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
13
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Costa
Bamgbose
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Bamgbose
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
CostaBamgbose
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedBamgbose
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bamgbose absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Bamgbose targets the body (56% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Bamgbose
0/0R00/0
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Bamgbose · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Bamgbose · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · 2017-12
L · KO · R2
Paulo CostaRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · KO · R1
Daniel SarafianRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08