UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Nashville, USA
5 Aug 2023
Flyweight
VS
47%
Osbourne
53%
Almabayev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almabayev
This is a genuine toss-up — Osbourne at 47% vs Almabayev at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Osbourne has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Osbourne throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Osbourne's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Osbourne
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
73"+
Reach
65"
34
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Osbourne
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
57.9
43.7
Performance Avg
53.7
45
Quality of Victory
32
87
Momentum Score
83
Osbourne
Almabayev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
59%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Osbourne
Almabayev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Osbourne
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/22 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Osbourne
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
83
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Osbourne
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Osbourne
Almabayev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
OsbourneAlmabayev
Strike Zones
Osbourne
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAlmabayev
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Osbourne targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Osbourne
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Almabayev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi IdirisUFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Almabayev · Last 5
Upcoming
Charles JohnsonUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10