UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
83%
Pennington
17%
Phillips
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
5'7"67" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
EP
Elizabeth Phillips
6 – 6
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pennington

Pennington is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pennington
Phillips
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"+
Reach
65"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Phillips
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
9.5
46.8
Performance Avg
25.0
32
Quality of Victory
25
80
Momentum Score
17
Pennington
Phillips
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
29%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Pennington
Phillips
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pennington
Phillips
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Pennington
Phillips
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
17
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pennington
Phillips
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pennington
Phillips
Striking1.4 / 0.5Volume7.5 / 8.5Grappling3.7 / 2.4Wrestling2.6 / 1.7Submission2.3 / 0.0Pressure3.7 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Pennington
Strike Zones
Phillips
Pennington
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Phillips
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (60% of attacks) — Phillips absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Phillips targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pennington
RND
Phillips
0/0R00/0

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L6.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.2L6.7L5.3W5.6L4.5W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.9W5.1W7.0L2013-112016-042019-072022-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Phillips · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L4.5W6.1L2014-062014-082015-072016-08
WinLossTrend

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Phillips · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jessamyn DukeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Milana DudievaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Valerie LetourneauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06

News & Media

Raquel Pennington · Elizabeth Phillips
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