UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2011
Lightweight
VS
60%
Cerrone
40%
Kelly
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cerrone
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Kelly has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
19.1
53.0
Performance Avg
43.8
47
Quality of Victory
36
63
Momentum Score
99
Cerrone
Kelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
5
Body
3
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance10
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Cerrone
Kelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Cerrone
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
99
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Cerrone
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
40%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Kelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
CerroneKelly
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedKelly
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (47% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
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W · KO · R2
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