METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2011
Lightweight
VS
60%
Cerrone
40%
Kelly
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:48
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsSubmissionR2 · 3:48
def. Paul Kelly · UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Kelly has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CerroneKelly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cerrone
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
19.1
53.0
Performance Avg
43.8
47
Quality of Victory
36
63
Momentum Score
99
Cerrone
Kelly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
5
5
Body
3
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance10
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Cerrone
Kelly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Cerrone
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
99
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Cerrone
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
40%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Kelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
CerroneKelly
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedKelly
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (47% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11