The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Welterweight
VS
56%
Waldburger
44%
Catone
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:04
TW
TJ Waldburger
16 – 9
5'11"75" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 17
NC
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
10 – 4
Well-Rounded44 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'0"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Waldburger

This is a genuine toss-up — Waldburger at 56% vs Catone at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Waldburger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Waldburger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Waldburger's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waldburger
Catone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
72"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Waldburger
Catone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
13.3
47.4
Performance Avg
38.7
46
Quality of Victory
31
50
Momentum Score
30
Waldburger
Catone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Waldburger
Catone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
6.6
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
7.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Waldburger
Catone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Waldburger
Catone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
30
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Waldburger
Catone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Waldburger
Catone
Striking1.0 / 1.0Volume3.0 / 7.0Grappling6.6 / 3.8Wrestling4.6 / 2.7Submission7.5 / 2.5Pressure6.8 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Waldburger
Strike Zones
Catone
Waldburger
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Catone
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Waldburger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Catone absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Catone targets the head (100% of attacks) — Waldburger absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Waldburger
RND
Catone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Waldburger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W1.5L4.0L2010-092011-092012-062013-102014-02
WinLossTrend

Catone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.2W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W2009-022009-082011-032012-122014-02
WinLossTrend

Waldburger · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R1
Adlan AmagovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jake HechtRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03

Catone · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tom WatsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Sub · R2
TJ WaldburgerRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesse ForbesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01

News & Media

TJ Waldburger · Nick Catone
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