METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2012
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Nelson
52%
Werdum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Fabricio WerdumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Roy Nelson · UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Werdum
→
Actual result
Werdum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 48% vs Werdum at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonWerdum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+77"
50
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
20.4
55.6
Performance Avg
57.8
61
Quality of Victory
52
26
Momentum Score
72
Nelson
Werdum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
6.7
1.8
Style: Volume
4.0
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
24
3
Body
5
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance29
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Werdum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Nelson
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
72
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Nelson
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Werdum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
NelsonWerdum
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedWerdum
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R2
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L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtDecision
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L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettDecision
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Werdum · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikDecision
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L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisSubmission
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