UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2012
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Nelson
52%
Werdum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox49 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Werdum

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 48% vs Werdum at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Werdum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nelson
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+77"
49
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
20.4
55.6
Performance Avg
57.8
61
Quality of Victory
52
26
Momentum Score
72
Nelson
Werdum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
40%
Strike Accuracy
53%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
24
3
Body
5
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance29
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Werdum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Nelson
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
72
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Nelson
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Werdum
Striking9.8 / 4.7Volume1.8 / 4.0Grappling0.3 / 3.5Wrestling0.2 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure7.6 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Nelson
Strike Zones
Werdum
Nelson
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD5BODY3LEGS32 absorbed
Werdum
Attacking
24HEAD5BODY3LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Fabricio Werdum
← Back to fights