UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Las Vegas, USA
1 Mar 2025
Middleweight
VS
50%
Brundage
50%
Marquez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:45
Cody
Cody Brundage
12 – 9
6'0"72" reachOrthodox32 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 45
Julian
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
9 – 6
Submission Hunter4-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'2"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brundage

This is a genuine toss-up — Brundage at 50% vs Marquez at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Marquez throws more volume but Brundage connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brundage's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Marquez has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brundage
Marquez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
72"
32+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brundage
Marquez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
45.8
49.0
Performance Avg
43.8
53
Quality of Victory
48
26
Momentum Score
46
Brundage
Marquez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
3.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
31
1
Body
5
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
34Distance24
5Clinch13
5Ground0
Brundage
Marquez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brundage
Marquez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
10
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Brundage
Marquez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Brundage
Marquez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brundage
Marquez
Striking7.5 / 0.8Volume0.9 / 0.8Grappling1.3 / 8.0Wrestling0.9 / 5.6Submission1.7 / 10.0Pressure7.1 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Brundage
Strike Zones
Marquez
Brundage
Attacking
39HEAD1BODY4LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD5BODY1LEGS37 absorbed
Marquez
Attacking
31HEAD5BODY1LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD1BODY4LEGS44 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brundage targets the head (89% of attacks) — Marquez absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Marquez targets the head (84% of attacks) — Brundage absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brundage
RND
Marquez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Brundage · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L5.0W6.2W2.5L4.0L5.5L5.0W6.0W4.4L5.5W5.5L4.7L7.2L5.7W2021-092023-042024-042026-032026-05
WinLossTrend

Marquez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.2W5.5L5.5W5.2W3.1L2.8L2.5L2.0L2017-122021-022022-062024-062025-03
WinLossTrend

Brundage · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Andre PetroskiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Donte JohnsonRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Cam RowstonRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Eric McConicoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
Upcoming
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

Marquez · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Cody BrundageRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Zach ReeseRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Sub · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04

News & Media

Cody Brundage · Julian Marquez
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