METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Barnett
52%
Rothwell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:48
★ Official Result
Ben RothwellwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:48
def. Josh Barnett · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rothwell
→
Actual result
Rothwell wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Barnett at 48% vs Rothwell at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Barnett has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barnett's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarnettRothwell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barnett
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
48
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnett
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.3
27.0
66.2
Performance Avg
49.7
64
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
45
Barnett
Rothwell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.5
61%
Strike Accuracy
46%
7.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
13
6
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance17
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Barnett
Rothwell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnett
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Barnett
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Barnett
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
78%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barnett
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
BarnettRothwell
Strike Zones
Barnett
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barnett targets the head (53% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Rothwell targets the head (76% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barnett
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Barnett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Barnett · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · Sub · R2
Ben RothwellRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R5
Roy NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
W · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12