METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Barnett
52%
Rothwell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:48
★ Official Result
Ben RothwellwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:48
def. Josh Barnett · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rothwell
→
Actual result
Rothwell wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Barnett at 48% vs Rothwell at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Barnett's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarnettRothwell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barnett
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
48
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnett
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.3
27.0
66.2
Performance Avg
49.7
64
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
45
Barnett
Rothwell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.1
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
8.1
Style: Pressure
7.0
2.5
Style: Volume
2.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
13
6
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance17
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Barnett
Rothwell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barnett
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
34
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Barnett
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Barnett
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
78%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barnett
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
BarnettRothwell
Strike Zones
Barnett
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barnett targets the head (53% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Rothwell targets the head (76% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barnett
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Barnett · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Andrei ArlovskiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · Sub · R2
Ben RothwellSubmission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R5
Roy NelsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneKO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
W · KO · R1
Frank MirKO/TKO
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12