UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
Las Vegas, USA
16 Nov 2013
Welterweight
VS
31%
MacDonald
69%
Lawler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lawler has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
MacDonald
Lawler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
74"
36+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
MacDonald
Lawler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
40.7
51.3
Performance Avg
51.0
39
Quality of Victory
45
61
Momentum Score
90
MacDonald
Lawler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
19
3
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
8Distance12
0Clinch1
5Ground9
MacDonald
Lawler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Lawler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
25/46 fights
MacDonald
Lawler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
90
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
MacDonald
Lawler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
53%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Lawler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
MacDonaldLawler
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedLawler
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (77% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Lawler targets the head (86% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Lawler
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08