UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Tybura
55%
Diniz
Win Probability
Marcin
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27 – 11
6'3"78" reachOrthodox40 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 43
Jhonata
Jhonata Diniz
9 – 2
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Diniz

This is a genuine toss-up — Tybura at 45% vs Diniz at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Tybura throws more volume but Diniz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Tybura's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tybura
Diniz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
+79"
40
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tybura
Diniz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
51.5
45.2
Performance Avg
45.0
37
Quality of Victory
35
58
Momentum Score
74
Tybura
Diniz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
60%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
6
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance8
0Clinch0
24Ground0
Tybura
Diniz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tybura
Diniz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Tybura
Diniz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
74
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Tybura
Diniz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tybura
Diniz
Striking4.0 / 4.5Volume5.7 / 6.5Grappling1.9 / 1.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.1Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Tybura
Strike Zones
Diniz
Tybura
Attacking
31HEAD0BODY1LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Diniz
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD0BODY1LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tybura targets the head (97% of attacks) — Diniz absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Diniz targets the head (75% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tybura
RND
Diniz
0/0R00/0

Tybura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.2L4.5W2.8L1.7L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W6.8L5.3W4.5W3.9L5.4W2.0L5.1W5.6W2.5L6.8L2016-042018-072020-122024-032026-03
WinLossTrend

Diniz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W5.0W5.1L4.5W4.7L2024-042024-082024-112025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Tybura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
Jhonata DinizRating 5.1
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

Diniz · Last 5

Upcoming
Jose Montanha
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Alvin HinesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 5.1
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

News & Media

Marcin Tybura · Jhonata Diniz
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