METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Flyweight
VS
29%
Johnson
71%
Horiguchi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 5 · 4:59
DJ
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
27 – 3
5'3"66" reachOrthodox40 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 25
Kyoji
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
36 – 5
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 61
★ Official Result
Demetrious JohnsonwinsSubmissionR5 · 4:59
def. Kyoji Horiguchi · UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Horiguchi
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Submission · R5
Pre-fight analysis

Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Risk flags

Horiguchi has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonHoriguchi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Horiguchi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
66"+
Reach
63"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Horiguchi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.2
60.6
69.9
Performance Avg
53.7
58
Quality of Victory
35
85
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Horiguchi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.1
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
4.8
6.0
Style: Volume
7.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
3Clinch1
4Ground0
Johnson
Horiguchi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Horiguchi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
11/41 fights
Johnson
Horiguchi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
100
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Horiguchi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Horiguchi
Striking3.1 / 3.9Volume6.0 / 7.0Grappling4.0 / 2.5Wrestling2.8 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 1.1Pressure5.9 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Johnson
Strike Zones
Horiguchi
Johnson
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Horiguchi
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (55% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Horiguchi
0/0R00/0

Johnson · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Henry Cejudo
Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
W · Sub · R5
Ray Borg
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Sub · R3
Wilson Reis
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R5
Tim Elliott
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Henry Cejudo
KO/TKO
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04

Horiguchi · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Manel Kape
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir Albazi
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir Ulanbekov
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali Bagautinov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil Seery
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05

News & Media

Demetrious Johnson · Kyoji Horiguchi
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