★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Flyweight
VS
28%
Johnson
72%
Horiguchi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 5 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Horiguchi
Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Horiguchi throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Johnson
Horiguchi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'4"
66"+
Reach
63"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Horiguchi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.2
64.0
69.9
Performance Avg
56.7
58
Quality of Victory
34
85
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Horiguchi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
58%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
4
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
3Clinch1
4Ground0
Johnson
Horiguchi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Horiguchi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
11/41 fights
Johnson
Horiguchi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
100
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Horiguchi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Horiguchi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
JohnsonHoriguchi
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHoriguchi
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (55% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Horiguchi
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Horiguchi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
W · Sub · R5
Ray BorgRating 5.5Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Sub · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R5
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Henry CejudoRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
Horiguchi · Last 5
Upcoming
Manel KapeUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05