UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Las Vegas, USA
3 Mar 2018
Middleweight
VS
55%
Dollaway
45%
Lombard
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dollaway
This is a genuine toss-up — Dollaway at 55% vs Lombard at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lombard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Lombard throws more volume but Dollaway connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dollaway's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lombard has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dollaway
Lombard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
42+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Dollaway
Lombard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
11.7
44.3
Performance Avg
39.9
37
Quality of Victory
48
51
Momentum Score
0
Dollaway
Lombard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
8
Body
2
1
Leg
9
RangeRange
12Distance18
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Dollaway
Lombard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dollaway
Lombard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
24
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/44 fights
Dollaway
Lombard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
0
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Dollaway
Lombard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dollaway
Lombard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.2
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
DollawayLombard
Strike Zones
Dollaway
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedLombard
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dollaway targets the body (62% of attacks) — Lombard absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Lombard targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Dollaway absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dollaway
RND
Lombard
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dollaway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Lombard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Dollaway · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Khalid MurtazalievRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
W · R1
Hector LombardRating 4UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Ed HermanRating 4.7Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
L · KO · R2
Nate MarquardtRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
Lombard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · R1
CB DollawayRating 4UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · KO · R2
Dan HendersonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06