UFC 105: Couture vs Vera
Manchester, United Kingdom
14 Nov 2009
Lightweight
VS
43%
Siver
57%
Kelly
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:53
DS
Dennis Siver
23 – 11
5'6"70" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
PK
Paul Kelly
14 – 5
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

This is a genuine toss-up — Siver at 43% vs Kelly at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Siver throws more volume but Kelly connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Siver's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelly has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Siver
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Siver
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
19.1
46.1
Performance Avg
43.8
37
Quality of Victory
36
43
Momentum Score
99
Siver
Kelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
34%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
4
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance4
3Clinch0
2Ground0
Siver
Kelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Siver
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Siver
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
99
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Siver
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Siver
Kelly
Striking3.7 / 3.1Volume5.9 / 5.9Grappling2.7 / 3.0Wrestling1.9 / 2.1Submission1.7 / 2.0Pressure4.7 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Siver
Strike Zones
Kelly
Siver
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Kelly
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Siver targets the head (82% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Siver absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Siver
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Siver · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5L4.5W4.1L5.5L4.5W2007-042009-062011-022013-072017-06
WinLossTrend

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W2.8L2008-012009-062010-082011-02
WinLossTrend

Siver · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
BJ PennRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Tatsuya KawajiriRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
Upcoming
Manvel Gamburyan
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12

Kelly · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11

News & Media

Dennis Siver · Paul Kelly
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