UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Ferreira
46%
Rebecki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:51
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
5'9"74" reachOrthodox41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Mateusz
Mateusz Rebecki
20 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsSouthpaw66" reach5'7"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferreira at 54% vs Rebecki at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Rebecki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rebecki has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferreira
Rebecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
66"
41
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferreira
Rebecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
46.4
50.7
Performance Avg
43.8
45
Quality of Victory
40
87
Momentum Score
50
Ferreira
Rebecki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
1
14
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
35Distance6
0Clinch0
27Ground0
Ferreira
Rebecki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
Rebecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Ferreira
Rebecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
50
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Ferreira
Rebecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferreira
Rebecki
Striking6.2 / 3.5Volume3.6 / 5.0Grappling2.3 / 3.2Wrestling1.6 / 2.2Submission2.0 / 2.5Pressure6.7 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Ferreira
Strike Zones
Rebecki
Ferreira
Attacking
48HEAD14BODY0LEGS62 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Rebecki
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
48HEAD14BODY0LEGS62 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (77% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Rebecki targets the body (50% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferreira
RND
Rebecki
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Rebecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.5W5.8W5.2W5.0L6.1W6.8L6.7L5.5L2023-012023-112024-102025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Rebecki · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Diego Ferreira · Mateusz Rebecki
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