METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Bantamweight
VS
58%
Cannetti
42%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:04
★ Official Result
Guido CannettiwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:04
def. Randy Costa · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cannetti
→
Actual result
Cannetti wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Cannetti at 58% vs Costa at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Cannetti's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CannettiCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cannetti
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+73"
46
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Cannetti
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.3
24.9
40.6
Performance Avg
49.3
41
Quality of Victory
60
68
Momentum Score
13
Cannetti
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
8.0
4.8
Style: Volume
0.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
3
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Cannetti
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cannetti
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Cannetti
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
13
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Cannetti
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cannetti
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
CannettiCosta
Strike Zones
Cannetti
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCosta
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cannetti targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (100% of attacks) — Cannetti absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cannetti
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Cannetti · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R1
Randy CostaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · KO · R1
Batgerel DanaaKO/TKO
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
Costa · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10