UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Bantamweight
VS
58%
Cannetti
42%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:04
GC
Guido Cannetti
"Ninja"
10 – 8
5'6"68" reachSouthpaw46 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 34
RC
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
6 – 4
Knockout Artist3-fight slide31 yrsSwitch73" reach5'9"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cannetti

This is a genuine toss-up — Cannetti at 58% vs Costa at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Striking split: Costa throws more volume but Cannetti connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Cannetti's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Costa has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cannetti
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+73"
46
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Cannetti
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.3
24.9
40.6
Performance Avg
49.3
41
Quality of Victory
60
68
Momentum Score
13
Cannetti
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
3
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Cannetti
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cannetti
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Cannetti
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
13
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Cannetti
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cannetti
Costa
Striking3.3 / 10.0Volume4.8 / 0.7Grappling3.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.2 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Cannetti
Strike Zones
Costa
Cannetti
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cannetti targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (100% of attacks) — Cannetti absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cannetti
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0

Cannetti · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.8L4.5W2.4L4.5W3.6L2.1L5.5L5.0W5.0W2.6L2014-112018-052021-082023-03
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W4.2L2.8L1.5L2019-042019-102020-092021-072021-122022-10
WinLossTrend

Cannetti · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R1
Randy CostaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · KO · R1
Batgerel DanaaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

Costa · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Guido Cannetti · Randy Costa
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