UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Las Vegas, USA
24 Jan 2026
Bantamweight
VS
52%
Nurmagomedov
48%
Figueiredo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
5'8"69" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Deiveson
Deiveson Figueiredo
"Deus da Guerra"
25 – 6
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'5"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 52% vs Figueiredo at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Figueiredo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Nurmagomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Figueiredo has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
69"+
Reach
68"
30+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
56.4
57.2
Performance Avg
57.9
36
Quality of Victory
50
75
Momentum Score
55
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.9
62%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
22/31 fights
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
55
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
57%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Figueiredo
Striking3.0 / 4.3Volume6.8 / 4.8Grappling3.5 / 3.3Wrestling2.5 / 2.3Submission2.5 / 2.9Pressure5.3 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Figueiredo
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Figueiredo
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (67% of attacks) — Figueiredo absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Figueiredo
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.3W5.7W5.8W5.6W6.0W6.8L5.6W5.6W2021-012023-012025-012026-01
WinLossTrend

Figueiredo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.2W4.5W7.3W5.2W5.5L5.8W5.1W5.1W5.0W6.3W3.6L5.4W5.6L5.7W6.3W5.3W7.0L3.6L5.4W6.8L2017-062019-072021-062024-082026-01
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Figueiredo · Last 5

Upcoming
Song Yadong
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

News & Media

Umar Nurmagomedov · Deiveson Figueiredo
← Back to fights