UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
Dallas, USA
8 Sept 2018
Welterweight
VS
74%
Neal
26%
Camacho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
Neal is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Camacho throws more volume but Neal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Camacho has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Neal
Camacho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
73"
35+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Camacho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
19.5
51.7
Performance Avg
34.0
48
Quality of Victory
40
72
Momentum Score
39
Neal
Camacho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
3.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance5
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Neal
Camacho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Camacho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
8/32 fights
Neal
Camacho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Neal
Camacho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Camacho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NealCamacho
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedCamacho
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Camacho absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Camacho targets the head (83% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Camacho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Camacho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Camacho · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Justin JaynesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · KO · R2
Nick HeinRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Geoff NealRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09