UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
68%
Jacoby
32%
Walker
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
Jacoby holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Walker has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jacoby has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Jacoby throws more volume but Walker connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jacoby's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jacoby
Walker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+78"
38
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jacoby
Walker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
29.5
53.8
Performance Avg
28.3
48
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
27
Jacoby
Walker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
54%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance2
9Clinch0
11Ground0
Jacoby
Walker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jacoby
Walker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/31 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Jacoby
Walker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
27
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jacoby
Walker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jacoby
Walker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
JacobyWalker
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedWalker
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jacoby targets the head (97% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Walker targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jacoby
RND
Walker
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Walker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Jacoby · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Walker · Last 4
Upcoming
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Dustin JacobyRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rafael CerqueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02